:Product: 0621RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Jun 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 172 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jun 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
21/0944Z from Region 2367 (S18W64). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(22 Jun, 23 Jun, 24 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
370 km/s at 21/2055Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 21/1853Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 21/1912Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 14 pfu at
21/2055Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1877 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to severe storm levels on day one (22 Jun), unsettled
to major storm levels on day two (23 Jun) and quiet to active levels on
day three (24 Jun). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one
(22 Jun), are expected to cross threshold on day two (23 Jun) and are
likely to cross threshold on day three (24 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Jun-24 Jun
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     99/90/70
PCAF       yellow

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Jun 136
Predicted   22 Jun-24 Jun 135/130/125
90 Day Mean        21 Jun 127

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jun   002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jun  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jun-24 Jun  032/060-026/042-011/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jun-24 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/30/25
Minor Storm           35/40/05
Major-severe storm    50/25/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                01/05/15
Minor Storm           10/15/30
Major-severe storm    90/85/30