:Product: 0623RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Jun 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 174 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jun 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
23/1219Z from Region 2371 (N12W28). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(24 Jun, 25 Jun, 26 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at active to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 1054 km/s at 23/1051Z. Total IMF reached 38 nT at 22/2102Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -25 nT at 23/0135Z. Protons
greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 529
pfu at 22/2130Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
were contaminated by proton flux and therefore unreliable.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (24 Jun), minor
storm to severe storm levels on day two (25 Jun) and unsettled to minor
storm levels on day three (26 Jun). Protons are expected to cross
threshold on days one and two (24 Jun, 25 Jun) and are expected to cross
threshold on day three (26 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Jun-26 Jun
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     99/99/90
PCAF       yellow

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Jun 116
Predicted   24 Jun-26 Jun 115/110/110
90 Day Mean        23 Jun 127

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jun  057/074
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jun  044/083
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jun-26 Jun  028/040-048/080-020/025

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jun-26 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/40
Minor Storm           40/35/25
Major-severe storm    25/40/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/10
Minor Storm           15/15/25
Major-severe storm    79/85/65