:Product: 0625RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Jun 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 176 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jun 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M7 event observed at
25/0816Z from Region 2371 (N12W53). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (26 Jun,
27 Jun) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a
slight chance for an X-class flare on day three (28 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 710 km/s at 25/0830Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 25/0819Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 25/0625Z. Protons
greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7
pfu at 25/2025Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 12360 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (26 Jun), unsettled to
major storm levels on day two (27 Jun) and active to major storm levels
on day three (28 Jun). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day
one (26 Jun) and are expected to cross threshold on days two and three
(27 Jun, 28 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Jun-28 Jun
Class M    60/60/50
Class X    20/20/10
Proton     80/95/95
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Jun 102
Predicted   26 Jun-28 Jun 100/100/105
90 Day Mean        25 Jun 126

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jun   0NA/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jun  022/031
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jun-28 Jun  013/015-025/045-037/060

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jun-28 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/30/30
Minor Storm           10/40/40
Major-severe storm    01/25/25
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/05/05
Minor Storm           30/15/15
Major-severe storm    35/79/79