:Product: 0626RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Jun 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 177 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jun 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
26/0606Z from Region 2371 (N13W64). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (27 Jun,
28 Jun) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a
slight chance for an X-class flare on day three (29 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
583 km/s at 26/0935Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 26/2010Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 26/0729Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 16 pfu at
26/1020Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2395 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (27 Jun), active to
major storm levels on day two (28 Jun) and unsettled to active levels on
day three (29 Jun). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one
(27 Jun), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (28 Jun) and
have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (29 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Jun-29 Jun
Class M    60/60/30
Class X    20/20/10
Proton     95/50/10
PCAF       yellow

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Jun 101
Predicted   27 Jun-29 Jun 100/095/095
90 Day Mean        26 Jun 126

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jun  019/028
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jun  011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jun-29 Jun  024/045-035/060-016/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jun-29 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/40
Minor Storm           40/40/25
Major-severe storm    25/25/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/10
Minor Storm           15/15/25
Major-severe storm    79/79/60