:Product: 0627RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Jun 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 178 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jun 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
27/1104Z from Region 2371 (N12W79). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (28 Jun,
29 Jun) and likely to be low on day three (30 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
876 km/s at 27/0457Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 27/0305Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 27/0638Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 22 pfu at
27/0030Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 5777 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (28 Jun), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (29 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (30 Jun).
Protons greater than 10 Mev have a chance of crossing threshold on day
one (28 Jun) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day two
(29 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Jun-30 Jun
Class M    60/60/05
Class X    20/20/01
Proton     50/20/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Jun 097
Predicted   28 Jun-30 Jun 100/100/105
90 Day Mean        27 Jun 125

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jun  009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jun  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jun-30 Jun  010/012-009/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jun-30 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/10
Minor Storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    40/25/10