:Product: 0628RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Jun 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 179 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jun 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
28/1714Z from Region 2373 (N15E67). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (29 Jun) and
expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days two
and three (30 Jun, 01 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
565 km/s at 28/0253Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 27/2156Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 27/2219Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8 pfu at
28/0215Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 6994 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (29 Jun) and quiet levels
on days two and three (30 Jun, 01 Jul). Protons greater than 10 Mev have
a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (29 Jun) and have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on day two (30 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Jun-01 Jul
Class M    60/05/05
Class X    20/01/01
Proton     20/10/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Jun 097
Predicted   29 Jun-01 Jul 100/105/105
90 Day Mean        28 Jun 125

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jun  008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jun  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jun-01 Jul  009/008-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jun-01 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/10/10