:Product: 0630RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Jun 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 181 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jun 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
30/1243Z from Region 2376 (N13E57). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (01
Jul, 02 Jul, 03 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 430 km/s at
30/0645Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 30/0337Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 30/0414Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 9667 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (01 Jul) and quiet levels
on days two and three (02 Jul, 03 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Jul-03 Jul
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Jun 101
Predicted   01 Jul-03 Jul 105/110/115
90 Day Mean        30 Jun 124

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jun  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jun  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jul-03 Jul  008/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jul-03 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           30/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/10/10