:Product: 0701RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Jul 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 182 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jul 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
30/2211Z from Region 2376 (N13E57). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (02
Jul, 03 Jul, 04 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
446 km/s at 01/1318Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 01/0624Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 01/1336Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3 pfu at
01/1920Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 5953 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (02 Jul, 03 Jul, 04
Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Jul-04 Jul
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     05/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Jul 109
Predicted   02 Jul-04 Jul 110/115/120
90 Day Mean        01 Jul 124

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jun  008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jul  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jul-04 Jul  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jul-04 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10