:Product: 0706RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Jul 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 187 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jul 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
06/2040Z from Region 2381 (N14E31). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (07 Jul, 08 Jul, 09 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
573 km/s at 05/2139Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 06/0018Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 06/0037Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 440 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (07 Jul, 08 Jul, 09
Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Jul-09 Jul
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Jul 133
Predicted   07 Jul-09 Jul 135/140/140
90 Day Mean        06 Jul 124

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jul  016/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jul  011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jul-09 Jul  005/005-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jul-09 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/20