:Product: 0707RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Jul 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 188 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jul 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
07/0409Z from Region 2381 (N14E17). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Jul, 09 Jul,
10 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
601 km/s at 07/0238Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 06/2310Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 06/2318Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 576 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (08 Jul, 09 Jul) and quiet to
active levels on day three (10 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Jul-10 Jul
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Jul 133
Predicted   08 Jul-10 Jul 140/140/140
90 Day Mean        07 Jul 124

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jul  009/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jul  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jul-10 Jul  005/005-006/005-009/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jul-10 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/30
Minor Storm           05/05/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/30
Major-severe storm    20/20/40