:Product: 0711RSGA.txt :Issued: 2015 Jul 11 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 192 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jul 2015 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 11/1836Z from Region 2385 (N08W68). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (12 Jul, 13 Jul, 14 Jul). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 689 km/s at 11/1125Z. Total IMF reached 23 nT at 11/0229Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -14 nT at 10/2250Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1211 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (12 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (13 Jul, 14 Jul). III. Event probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul Class M 10/10/10 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 11 Jul 120 Predicted 12 Jul-14 Jul 120/120/115 90 Day Mean 11 Jul 124 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jul 011/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jul 020/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jul-14 Jul 011/015-009/008-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/25/20 Minor Storm 15/05/05 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor Storm 25/30/25 Major-severe storm 50/30/25