:Product: 0715RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Jul 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 196 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jul 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one and two (16 Jul, 17 Jul)
and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on
day three (18 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 635 km/s at
15/0512Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT. The maximum southward component of Bz
remained above -5 nT. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 3157 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (16 Jul,
17 Jul, 18 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Jul-18 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Jul 101
Predicted   16 Jul-18 Jul 100/100/100
90 Day Mean        15 Jul 123

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jul  008/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jul  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jul-18 Jul  005/005-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jul-18 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/20