:Product: 0716RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Jul 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 197 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jul 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one and two (17 Jul, 18 Jul)
and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on
day three (19 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
621 km/s at 15/2206Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 15/2116Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 15/2214Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4277 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (17 Jul,
18 Jul, 19 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Jul-19 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Jul 100
Predicted   17 Jul-19 Jul 100/100/100
90 Day Mean        16 Jul 122

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jul  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jul  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jul-19 Jul  006/008-006/008-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jul-19 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           20/20/35
Major-severe storm    20/20/30