:Product: 0719RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Jul 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 200 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jul 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
19/1040Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (20 Jul, 21 Jul, 22 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 358 km/s at
19/0132Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 7861 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (20 Jul), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (21 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (22 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Jul 099
Predicted   20 Jul-22 Jul 100/100/105
90 Day Mean        19 Jul 120

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jul  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jul  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jul-22 Jul  010/010-004/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/10/10
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           35/20/20
Major-severe storm    35/20/20