:Product: 0721RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Jul 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 202 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jul 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Jul,
23 Jul, 24 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
452 km/s at 21/1803Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 21/0242Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 21/0455Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 249 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (22 Jul) and quiet to active levels on
days two and three (23 Jul, 24 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Jul-24 Jul
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Jul 091
Predicted   22 Jul-24 Jul 090/095/095
90 Day Mean        21 Jul 119

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jul  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jul  009/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jul-24 Jul  006/005-013/015-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jul-24 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/35/25
Minor Storm           05/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           20/30/35
Major-severe storm    20/45/35