:Product: 0722RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Jul 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 203 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jul 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for C-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Jul, 24
Jul, 25 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
450 km/s at 21/2129Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 22/1556Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 22/1004Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 176 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (23 Jul, 24 Jul) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (25 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Jul-25 Jul
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Jul 089
Predicted   23 Jul-25 Jul 090/095/095
90 Day Mean        22 Jul 118

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jul  012/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jul  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jul-25 Jul  013/015-008/010-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jul-25 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/25/20
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           30/35/30
Major-severe storm    45/35/25