:Product: 0726RSGA.txt :Issued: 2015 Jul 26 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 207 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jul 2015 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 26/1234Z from Region 2389 (S11E35). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Jul, 28 Jul, 29 Jul). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 507 km/s at 25/2222Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 26/0258Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 25/2219Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1109 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (27 Jul), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (28 Jul) and unsettled to active levels on day three (29 Jul). III. Event probabilities 27 Jul-29 Jul Class M 05/05/05 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 26 Jul 097 Predicted 27 Jul-29 Jul 100/105/110 90 Day Mean 26 Jul 117 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jul 009/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jul 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jul-29 Jul 006/005-009/010-015/018 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jul-29 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/20/45 Minor Storm 01/05/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/20/10 Minor Storm 20/30/30 Major-severe storm 10/25/55