:Product: 0727RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Jul 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 208 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jul 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Jul,
29 Jul, 30 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
550 km/s at 27/0656Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 27/0233Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 27/0533Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 820 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (28 Jul, 30
Jul) and quiet to active levels on day two (29 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Jul-30 Jul
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Jul 100
Predicted   28 Jul-30 Jul 100/105/105
90 Day Mean        27 Jul 117

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jul  009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jul  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jul-30 Jul  009/010-013/016-010/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jul-30 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/40/15
Minor Storm           05/15/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/10/15
Minor Storm           30/30/15
Major-severe storm    25/55/05