:Product: 0731RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Jul 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 212 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jul 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Aug,
02 Aug, 03 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
640 km/s at 31/1832Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 30/2132Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 31/1153Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (01 Aug), unsettled
to active levels on day two (02 Aug) and unsettled levels on day three
(03 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Aug-03 Aug
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 Jul 101
Predicted   01 Aug-03 Aug 105/105/105
90 Day Mean        31 Jul 117

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jul  012/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jul  013/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Aug-03 Aug  020/024-012/016-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Aug-03 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/15
Minor Storm           20/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/20
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    55/40/25