:Product: 0801RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Aug 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 213 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Aug 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
01/2005Z from Region 2390 (S14W79). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Aug,
03 Aug, 04 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
655 km/s at 01/0706Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 01/0056Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 01/1700Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 127 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (02 Aug) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (03 Aug, 04 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Aug-04 Aug
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Aug 103
Predicted   02 Aug-04 Aug 105/105/105
90 Day Mean        01 Aug 117

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jul  016/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Aug  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Aug-04 Aug  011/012-009/010-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Aug-04 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    30/25/20