:Product: 0802RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Aug 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 214 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Aug 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Aug,
04 Aug, 05 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
674 km/s at 02/1106Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 02/0251Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 02/0126Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 720 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (03 Aug, 04 Aug)
and quiet levels on day three (05 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Aug-05 Aug
Class M    05/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Aug 102
Predicted   03 Aug-05 Aug 100/100/100
90 Day Mean        02 Aug 117

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Aug  009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Aug  011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Aug-05 Aug  009/010-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Aug-05 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    25/20/15