:Product: 0803RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Aug 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 215 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Aug 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 Aug,
05 Aug, 06 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
577 km/s at 02/2104Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 03/1056Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 03/0845Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1156 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (04 Aug, 05 Aug) and quiet to
active levels on day three (06 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Aug-06 Aug
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Aug 106
Predicted   04 Aug-06 Aug 105/105/105
90 Day Mean        03 Aug 116

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Aug  013/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Aug  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Aug-06 Aug  005/005-006/005-009/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Aug-06 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/30
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/30
Major-severe storm    15/15/40