:Product: 0804RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Aug 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 216 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Aug 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (05 Aug,
06 Aug, 07 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 492 km/s at
04/0739Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 04/1608Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 04/1958Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1662 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (05 Aug), quiet to active levels on day
two (06 Aug) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (07 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Aug-07 Aug
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Aug 107
Predicted   05 Aug-07 Aug 105/110/110
90 Day Mean        04 Aug 116

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Aug  009/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Aug  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Aug-07 Aug  006/006-011/012-017/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Aug-07 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/30/50
Minor Storm           05/05/25
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/05
Minor Storm           20/30/25
Major-severe storm    15/40/70