:Product: 0805RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Aug 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 217 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Aug 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 Aug,
07 Aug, 08 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
460 km/s at 05/1445Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 04/2159Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 05/1939Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1206 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (06 Aug), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (07 Aug) and quiet to active levels on day
three (08 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Aug 112
Predicted   06 Aug-08 Aug 110/115/115
90 Day Mean        05 Aug 116

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Aug  009/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Aug  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Aug-08 Aug  008/010-018/023-012/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/50/35
Minor Storm           05/25/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/05/15
Minor Storm           30/25/30
Major-severe storm    35/70/50