:Product: 0808RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Aug 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 220 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Aug 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
07/2243Z from Region 2396 (S17W11). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (09 Aug, 10 Aug,
11 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
560 km/s at 08/0340Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 08/0947Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 08/0952Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 846 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (09 Aug, 10
Aug) and quiet to active levels on day three (11 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Aug-11 Aug
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Aug 121
Predicted   09 Aug-11 Aug 120/120/115
90 Day Mean        08 Aug 115

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Aug  017/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Aug  011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Aug-11 Aug  015/019-018/022-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Aug-11 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/30
Minor Storm           25/20/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/20
Minor Storm           25/30/35
Major-severe storm    55/50/30