:Product: 0810RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Aug 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 222 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Aug 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Aug, 12 Aug,
13 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
582 km/s at 10/0516Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 09/2104Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 10/1654Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1559 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (11 Aug) and quiet levels
on days two and three (12 Aug, 13 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Aug-13 Aug
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Aug 106
Predicted   11 Aug-13 Aug 105/105/100
90 Day Mean        10 Aug 113

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Aug  010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Aug  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Aug-13 Aug  008/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Aug-13 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/20/15
Major-severe storm    15/10/15