:Product: 0811RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Aug 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 223 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Aug 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
11/1515Z from Region 2396 (S18W51). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Aug, 13 Aug,
14 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
492 km/s at 11/0851Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 11/0053Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 11/0850Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4102 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (12 Aug, 13 Aug, 14
Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Aug-14 Aug
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Aug 103
Predicted   12 Aug-14 Aug 105/100/095
90 Day Mean        11 Aug 113

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Aug  013/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Aug  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Aug-14 Aug  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Aug-14 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/15/15