:Product: 0812RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Aug 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 224 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Aug 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Aug, 14 Aug,
15 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
466 km/s at 12/1313Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 12/0918Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 12/1745Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2834 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (13 Aug, 14 Aug, 15
Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Aug-15 Aug
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Aug 099
Predicted   13 Aug-15 Aug 100/095/095
90 Day Mean        12 Aug 112

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Aug  008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Aug  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Aug-15 Aug  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Aug-15 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    15/15/15