:Product: 0813RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Aug 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 225 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Aug 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (14 Aug) and expected to
be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days two and three (15
Aug, 16 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
435 km/s at 12/2132Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 12/2100Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 13/1020Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 749 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (14 Aug, 15 Aug) and quiet to
minor storm levels on day three (16 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Aug-16 Aug
Class M    10/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Aug 095
Predicted   14 Aug-16 Aug 095/095/090
90 Day Mean        13 Aug 112

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Aug  012/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Aug  011/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Aug-16 Aug  006/005-006/005-018/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Aug-16 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/35
Minor Storm           01/01/25
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           15/15/25
Major-severe storm    15/15/60