:Product: 0816RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Aug 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 228 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Aug 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (17 Aug,
18 Aug, 19 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 637 km/s at 16/0736Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 15/2319Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 16/0642Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1325
pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (17 Aug), quiet to
active levels on day two (18 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (19
Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Aug-19 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Aug 086
Predicted   17 Aug-19 Aug 085/085/085
90 Day Mean        16 Aug 111

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Aug  024/040
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Aug  024/035
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Aug-19 Aug  018/020-012/015-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Aug-19 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/15
Minor Storm           25/10/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    60/40/20