:Product: 0817RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Aug 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 229 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Aug 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (18 Aug,
19 Aug, 20 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 622 km/s at 17/0050Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 17/0809Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 17/0817Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8750
pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (18 Aug), unsettled
to active levels on day two (19 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (20
Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Aug-20 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Aug 087
Predicted   18 Aug-20 Aug 090/090/090
90 Day Mean        17 Aug 111

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Aug  027/039
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Aug  023/030
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Aug-20 Aug  021/025-015/018-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Aug-20 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/10
Minor Storm           25/10/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/20
Major-severe storm    60/45/15