:Product: 0818RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Aug 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 230 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Aug 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (19 Aug,
20 Aug, 21 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
638 km/s at 18/0017Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 18/2050Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 18/2014Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 21632 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (19 Aug) and quiet levels on
days two and three (20 Aug, 21 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Aug-21 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Aug 089
Predicted   19 Aug-21 Aug 090/095/095
90 Day Mean        18 Aug 110

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Aug  027/031
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Aug  012/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Aug-21 Aug  009/010-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Aug-21 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/10/10
Minor Storm           10/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/20/20
Major-severe storm    45/15/15