:Product: 0819RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Aug 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 231 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Aug 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on day
one (20 Aug) and expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days two and three (21 Aug, 22 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
533 km/s at 19/2052Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 19/1325Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 19/1138Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 15877 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (20 Aug) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (21 Aug, 22 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Aug-22 Aug
Class M    05/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Aug 098
Predicted   20 Aug-22 Aug 100/105/105
90 Day Mean        19 Aug 110

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Aug  010/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Aug  016/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Aug-22 Aug  016/022-010/018-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Aug-22 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/15/10
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           30/30/15
Major-severe storm    45/25/15