:Product: 0822RSGA.txt :Issued: 2015 Aug 22 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 234 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Aug 2015 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 22/1323Z from Region 2403 (S14E09). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 Aug, 24 Aug, 25 Aug). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 499 km/s at 21/2207Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 22/1130Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 22/1217Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6539 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (23 Aug, 24 Aug) and quiet to active levels on day three (25 Aug). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (25 Aug). III. Event probabilities 23 Aug-25 Aug Class M 55/55/55 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 01/05/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 22 Aug 117 Predicted 23 Aug-25 Aug 120/120/120 90 Day Mean 22 Aug 111 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 21 Aug 006/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Aug 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Aug-25 Aug 021/028-020/028-014/020 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Aug-25 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 45/45/35 Minor Storm 25/25/15 Major-severe storm 05/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 05/05/10 Minor Storm 25/20/25 Major-severe storm 70/70/50