:Product: 0823RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Aug 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 235 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Aug 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
22/2124Z from Region 2403 (S15W04). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(24 Aug, 25 Aug, 26 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 611 km/s at 23/1403Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 23/0740Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 23/0731Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 207
pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (24 Aug) and quiet
to active levels on days two and three (25 Aug, 26 Aug). Protons greater
than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and
three (25 Aug, 26 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Aug-26 Aug
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Aug 133
Predicted   24 Aug-26 Aug 120/120/125
90 Day Mean        23 Aug 111

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Aug  008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Aug  025/032
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Aug-26 Aug  020/028-014/020-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Aug-26 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                45/35/30
Minor Storm           25/15/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/10/15
Minor Storm           20/25/30
Major-severe storm    70/50/40