:Product: 0824RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Aug 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 236 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Aug 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at
24/0733Z from Region 2403 (S15W18). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (25 Aug,
26 Aug) and likely to be moderate on day three (27 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
590 km/s at 23/2106Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 24/1720Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 24/0655Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1700 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (25 Aug, 26 Aug)
and quiet to active levels on day three (27 Aug). Protons greater than
10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two
(25 Aug, 26 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Aug-27 Aug
Class M    65/60/55
Class X    10/10/05
Proton     10/10/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Aug 128
Predicted   25 Aug-27 Aug 130/130/135
90 Day Mean        24 Aug 111

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Aug  023/029
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Aug  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Aug-27 Aug  011/016-008/012-016/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Aug-27 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/30
Minor Storm           10/05/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    35/30/45