:Product: 0828RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Aug 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 240 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Aug 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
28/1316Z from Region 2403 (S15W69). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (29 Aug,
30 Aug) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day
three (31 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 440 km/s at 28/1841Z. Total IMF reached 17 nT at 28/1801Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -16 nT at 28/1708Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 256
pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (29 Aug), quiet to
active levels on day two (30 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (31 Aug). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one and two (29 Aug, 30 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Aug-31 Aug
Class M    60/60/50
Class X    10/10/05
Proton     10/10/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Aug 109
Predicted   29 Aug-31 Aug 110/105/100
90 Day Mean        28 Aug 112

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Aug  026/051
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Aug  033/048
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Aug-31 Aug  019/025-010/012-009/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Aug-31 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/15
Minor Storm           25/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    60/40/25