:Product: 0830RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Aug 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 242 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Aug 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
30/0330Z from Region 2403 (S15W89). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on day one (31 Aug) and expected to be very
low with a chance for a C-class flares on days two and three (01 Sep, 02
Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 510 km/s at
29/2302Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 29/2308Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3 nT at 29/2214Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1552 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (31 Aug), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (01 Sep) and unsettled to minor storm levels on
day three (02 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 31 Aug-02 Sep
Class M    40/01/01
Class X    05/01/01
Proton     05/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Aug 092
Predicted   31 Aug-02 Sep 090/090/085
90 Day Mean        30 Aug 112

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Aug  013/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Aug  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Aug-02 Sep  009/008-014/020-017/022

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Aug-02 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/45/45
Minor Storm           01/25/25
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    20/70/70