:Product: 0901RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Sep 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 244 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Sep 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (02
Sep, 03 Sep, 04 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 398 km/s at
01/0240Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 01/1637Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 01/0916Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3144 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (02 Sep), quiet to
active levels on day two (03 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (04 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Sep 089
Predicted   02 Sep-04 Sep 090/085/090
90 Day Mean        01 Sep 112

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Aug  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Sep  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Sep-04 Sep  017/022-012/014-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/25
Minor Storm           25/15/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    60/50/30