:Product: 0902RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Sep 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 245 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Sep 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (03
Sep, 04 Sep, 05 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
429 km/s at 02/1710Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 02/0159Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 02/0013Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2791 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (03 Sep) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (04 Sep, 05 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Sep-05 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Sep 088
Predicted   03 Sep-05 Sep 085/085/090
90 Day Mean        02 Sep 112

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Sep  007/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Sep  009/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Sep-05 Sep  011/012-008/009-009/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Sep-05 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/20
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    40/30/25