:Product: 0903RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Sep 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 246 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Sep 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
03/1137Z. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (04
Sep, 05 Sep, 06 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
472 km/s at 03/1143Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 03/1915Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 03/1813Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 578 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (04 Sep,
05 Sep, 06 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Sep 087
Predicted   04 Sep-06 Sep 085/090/090
90 Day Mean        03 Sep 111

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Sep  010/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Sep  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Sep-06 Sep  008/008-008/010-008/009

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/25
Minor Storm           05/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    25/40/30