:Product: 0905RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Sep 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 248 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Sep 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (06
Sep, 07 Sep, 08 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
578 km/s at 04/2349Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 04/2106Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 05/1622Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3188 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (06 Sep, 08
Sep) and quiet to active levels on day two (07 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Sep 085
Predicted   06 Sep-08 Sep 085/085/085
90 Day Mean        05 Sep 110

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Sep  018/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Sep  012/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Sep-08 Sep  008/008-010/012-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/25/15
Minor Storm           05/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    25/35/25