:Product: 0906RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Sep 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 249 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Sep 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (07
Sep, 08 Sep, 09 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
557 km/s at 06/1507Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 06/0826Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 06/0807Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1973 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (07 Sep), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (08 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (09 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Sep-09 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Sep 086
Predicted   07 Sep-09 Sep 085/085/085
90 Day Mean        06 Sep 110

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Sep  010/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Sep  011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Sep-09 Sep  010/012-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Sep-09 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/10
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/15
Major-severe storm    35/25/15