:Product: 0907RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Sep 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 250 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Sep 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (08
Sep, 09 Sep, 10 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 679 km/s at 07/1408Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 07/1332Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 07/1501Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2559
pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (08 Sep), quiet to
active levels on day two (09 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (10 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Sep-10 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Sep 084
Predicted   08 Sep-10 Sep 085/085/085
90 Day Mean        07 Sep 109

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Sep  012/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Sep  025/043
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Sep-10 Sep  022/026-011/012-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Sep-10 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/20
Minor Storm           25/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    55/30/25