:Product: 0908RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Sep 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 251 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Sep 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (09
Sep, 10 Sep, 11 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 594 km/s at 07/2151Z. Total IMF reached 21 nT at 08/1121Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 08/0038Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 800
pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (09 Sep, 11 Sep)
and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (10 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Sep-11 Sep
Class M    01/01/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Sep 084
Predicted   09 Sep-11 Sep 085/085/090
90 Day Mean        08 Sep 109

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Sep  027/045
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Sep  018/028
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Sep-11 Sep  011/012-006/008-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Sep-11 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/25
Minor Storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    30/25/35