:Product: 0909RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Sep 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 252 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Sep 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (10
Sep, 11 Sep, 12 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at active to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 446 km/s at 09/0326Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 08/2100Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 09/0507Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1006
pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (10 Sep), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (11 Sep) and unsettled to minor storm levels on
day three (12 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Sep-12 Sep
Class M    01/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Sep 082
Predicted   10 Sep-12 Sep 085/090/100
90 Day Mean        09 Sep 108

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Sep   NA/024
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Sep  039/057
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Sep-12 Sep  021/025-014/018-019/026

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Sep-12 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/35
Minor Storm           30/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/10/10
Minor Storm           20/25/30
Major-severe storm    70/50/55