:Product: 0910RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Sep 10 2230 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 253 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Sep 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (11 Sep, 12 Sep, 13 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 472 km/s at 09/2232Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 10/1814Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 10/1527Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3173
pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (11 Sep), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (12 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day
three (13 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Sep-13 Sep
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Sep 084
Predicted   11 Sep-13 Sep 090/095/100
90 Day Mean        10 Sep 107

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Sep   NA/056
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Sep  011/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Sep-13 Sep  015/018-020/025-013/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Sep-13 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor Storm           25/25/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    55/55/50