:Product: 0911RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Sep 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 254 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Sep 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (12 Sep, 13 Sep, 14 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to severe storm levels for the past 24
hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a
peak speed of 674 km/s at 11/1132Z. Total IMF reached 18 nT at 11/0731Z.
The maximum southward component of Bz reached -16 nT at 11/0731Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 1274 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to major storm levels on day one (12 Sep), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (13 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day
three (14 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Sep-14 Sep
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Sep 093
Predicted   12 Sep-14 Sep 100/105/110
90 Day Mean        11 Sep 107

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Sep  010/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Sep  036/061
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Sep-14 Sep  028/040-019/025-012/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Sep-14 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/30
Minor Storm           30/20/10
Major-severe storm    15/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    70/50/40