:Product: 0912RSGA.txt :Issued: 2015 Sep 12 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 255 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Sep 2015 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 11/2137Z from Region 2414 (S10W20). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (13 Sep, 14 Sep, 15 Sep). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 658 km/s at 12/0023Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 11/2113Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 11/2134Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 10410 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and three (13 Sep, 15 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day two (14 Sep). III. Event probabilities 13 Sep-15 Sep Class M 10/10/10 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 12 Sep 099 Predicted 13 Sep-15 Sep 100/105/105 90 Day Mean 12 Sep 107 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 11 Sep 036/053 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Sep 023/030 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Sep-15 Sep 019/025-012/015-016/020 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Sep-15 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/30/30 Minor Storm 20/10/15 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor Storm 25/30/25 Major-severe storm 50/40/45