:Product: 0913RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Sep 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 256 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Sep 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (14 Sep, 15 Sep, 16 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
529 km/s at 12/2128Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 13/1851Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 13/1429Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 11910 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (14 Sep, 16 Sep)
and unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (15 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Sep-16 Sep
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Sep 099
Predicted   14 Sep-16 Sep 105/105/100
90 Day Mean        13 Sep 106

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Sep  013/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Sep  011/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Sep-16 Sep  010/012-015/020-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Sep-16 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor Storm           10/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/30
Major-severe storm    40/45/40